Startup Options Bot

Are start ups big money? When joining a start up, often folks will get options. How can simulations can help paint a picture of potential options outcomes?

Start ups may offer options as part of compensation. These let employees purchase company stock. However, sometimes those shares cannot be sold right away. This means employees may invest their own money for either a loss or a profit realized after some delay.

What might the outcomes for options look like? Maybe data science can help. This tool explores Markov Chains and Monte Carlo methods, looking at distributions of outcomes given beliefs about what might happen to a start up.

Woah buddy. This is a US-focused free and open source community project. That said, we are talking money and can't guarantee accuracy or results. Please agree to the following:
  • Privacy policy in which, among other things, the simulation you build is not saved on our servers.
  • Website disclaimer in which, among other things, you agree to use this website at your own risk and we have no liability of any kind.
  • External links disclaimer in which, among other things, you agree we have no liability of any kind for any third party websites linked.
  • Financial and professional disclaimer in which, among other things, we are not responsible for any decision you may make regarding information presented. This is not financial advice.
Please wait...
An example simulation has been loaded to help you get started. You can design your simulation either through this UI-based wizard (recommended for most users) or through a domain specific language in the code editor.
In addition to the UI editor, you can also program the simulation through a small domain specific language with which you can define more complex simulations.
Whoops! It looks like there's either a code error or you are using a lanugage feature not supported in the UI editor. Please use the code editor instead.
Running please wait...
(0 simulations complete)

What's the takeaway?

Post-tax simulation outcomes summarized at a high level.
Statistic Value
Simulations with profit
Simulations over 1 million

How often were different profits seen?

Histogram looking at how often different post-tax profits were seen in simulations.

What were the individual simulation results?

Time and post-tax proft for individual simulations. Click on a dot to see an individual simulation.

Like this? Want more experiments at the intersection of data science, systems, and design? Join my privacy-respecting free low-volume newsletter.

Join newsletter